Long Range Forecasting in the Mountain and Hill Zones in Romania by Means of an AR-MEM Model
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper presents an optimum combination of two robust statistical techniques that can be used to improve the skill of long-range weather forecasts in subCarpathian zone in comparison with plane zone. The first method uses decomposition and analysis based on EEOF (Extended Empirical Orthogonal Functions), with a 3-month data window, for temperature and precipitation fields in Romania. The prognostic estimates have been obtained using an auto-regressive model, whose parameters are determined using the maximum entropy method (AR-MEM). This model has been applied both for the observation time series from each station and for the time series of the significant components in an EEOF decomposition.
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